Gary Samore writes in Politico Magazine that a comprehensive nuclear agreement is unlikely so long as the two sides remain far apart on the core issues of the negotiations: centrifuges and sanctions relief. However, the interim agreement has succeeded in “essentially freezing Iran’s nuclear program without giving up very much in sanctions leverage.” Ultimately, Samore argues, the terms of interim agreement will likely be extended past the six-month deadline on July 20 without a final deal because:
“neither [side] wants to return to previous cycle[s] of escalation of increased sanctions and increased nuclear activities with an increased risk of war. And both sides will be able to make a good case that sufficient progress is being made in the negotiations even if a final agreement has not been reached.”
Read the full article here.