Aaron Stein outlines Turkey's strategic approach to Iran's nuclear program. Turkey's policy, he argues, is based on robust assumptions about the strength of Turkey's military, the credibility of NATO's deterrent power, and the value of the Turkish-Iranian economic relationship, and is therefore unlikely to change no matter the outcome of Iran's negotiations with the P5+1. Read more about Piecing together Turkey’s Iran policy
The next round of P5+1 negotiations approaches, as Congress zeroes in on new terrorism-related sanctions and blocking a diplomat linked to the 1979 hostage crisis from entering the United States. These stories, President Rouhani’s visit to Afghanistan, General Dempsey’s trip to Israel, and more—in this week’s edition of Iran news from March 29-April 4, 2014. Read more about Belfer Iran Brief—Reviving the 1979 hostage crisis and other news
Kaveh Afrasiabi writes that increasing tension in the Iranian-Pakistani relationship could have a negative impact on nuclear negotiations. As mistrust grows between Iran and their nuclear neighbor, Afrasiabi argues that P5+1 negotiators should bring considerations of Iran's regional security into on-going talks. Read more about The emerging Pakistani factor in the Iran nuclear equation
At 12:00pm EST on Wednesday, April 2nd, Belfer experts Gary Samore and Matthew Bunn will host a Reddit Ask Me Anything (AMA) to discuss nuclear negotiations with Iran, nuclear security issues, and all things weapons of mass destruction.
James Sebenius, writing in Foreign Policy, suggests next steps for the American negotiating strategy in nuclear talks with Iran. The Obama administration, Sebenius argues, would do well to help expand the potential constituency for a more comprehensive deal in Iran by dramatizing its benefits. At the same time, he highlights the risk of “deal drift:” that some version of the interim deal may well end up as the new status quo. To address this risk, Sebenius describes how a credible contingent sanctions mechanism—that avoids the deal-killing provisions of Menendez-Kirk—could be put in place for exceeding a potential six month extension on the Joint Plan of Action. Read more about Like a boss: How corporate negotiators would handle nuclear negotiations with Iran
Ariane Tabatabai, writing in The National Interest, takes a closer look at Iran's human rights record under President Rouhani and grapples with the idea of linking progress on human rights to ongoing nuclear negotiations. The linkage, she concludes, would be largely counterproductive:
"Are the nuclear talks are an adequate platform for those human-rights concerns that remain? Probably not. The nuclear talks are complex enough without the addition of an extremely complicated and largely separate issue."